Bold Canadian Election 2011 Predictions

Though Canada is but hours away from deciding its next Federal parliament, speculation has already been abound throughout the web and popular media as to where the power shall lay. Allow us to try our hand.

As we play through the narrative of this election, there are many ridings and personalities which do stand out and deserve our attention.

This analysis is aided by the premier Canadian electoral projection site, ThreeHundredEight, which provides the best picture for the government that will form in Canada on the 3rd of May, 2011.

After sifting through hundreds of polls throughout the last few days, the tally comes out as follows:

This is to say that the Conservatives will have 143 seats, NDP with 78, Liberals with 60, and the Bloc Québecois with 27.

Though I see no reason to radically challenge these poll numbers, there are several ridings and individuals which require specific attention:

Laurier-Sainte Marie

Though this Montréal riding has been held by Gilles Duceppe for almost 21 years, I am making the radical projection that he will lose his seat to the NDP vote. As the latest polls suggest, the Bloc is beginning to see its grip on Québec come to an end, and it is my sincere prediction that Gilles Duceppe will be the most prominent causality of that shift.

The decade-long effort to tie the Québec sovereignty movement to strictly social-democratic principles has disillusioned many nationalists, sparking the rise of the Reséau Liberté du Québec, a more fiscally-conservative grassroots movement aimed at reducing government’s role in the most heavily-taxed province in North America.

The skepticism toward the Bloc has definitely increased amongst younger voters in the last few years, as the dinosaur party struggles to define itself in an age of dampened Québec nationalism and increased French-awareness by all other Federal parties.

As I predict Duceppe to lose his seat, this will also necessarily shake the entire sovereignty movement in Québec, with no significant charismatic leader in sight for the moment. (One option could be a new right-of-centre federal party headed by François Legault, who has flirted with the idea of a new Québec-centered political party.)

Whatever the case, look for the BQ to go the way of the ADQ in due time and for Duceppe to be left in the dust.

Beauce

It is no surprise that Maxime Bernier will win in his riding, but it must be stated that he is one of the most significant players in Federal and Québec politics today.

Bernier opted to use absolutely no campaign signs, and has instead turned to the internet, radio, and personal appearances as his method to spread his message in Québec.

Though he lost his cabinet position in the Conservative government in 2008 after leaving key NATO documents at his girlfriend’s house, who also had ties to the Hell’s Angels motorcycle gang, Bernier is one of the most principled members of parliament.

Owing to his charisma and well-tailored libertarian principles, it would be interesting to view Bernier in a future leadershiop role of the Conservative party, something that could resonate well in both Québec and individualist Alberta. Keep your eye on this man.

Simcoe-Grey

Tossed under the bus by the Harper government, Helena Guergis is fighting with all her might to win her riding under the banner of Independent.

Originally the Minister of State for the Status of Women in the Conservative government, Guergis was asked to resign from the party and government after several allegations were brought to the attention of the Prime Minister, though never discussed beyond that. Several reports indicated that the allegations included strippers, clubs, escorts, and offshore accounts, but those were easily laughed off and discarded by investigators.

Now, after having been cleared by the RCMP, Guergis is determined to overcome the odds and once again handily win her riding which lays just north of Toronto. The odds will be tough, considering another Conservative is in the race, but she is ever determined.

Because the parliamentary system rarely yields individual stars in the party caucuses, Guergis’ race will surely be one to watch and admire (as well as her).

Using her own “slurs” against Harper, it is very likely that Guergis could draw support from the younger, more conservative voters, always in search of an outspoken candidate and member of parliament. It is my prediction that the voters of Simcoe-Grey will come through for Guergis, providing for the one independent seat in the House of Commons.

The Next Prime Minister of Canada

As for who shall be the next leader of the great Canadian state, this is where the most stark projection is to be made.

Canada has already been under the leadership of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper for 5 years, with the chance of yet another solid mandate to govern. Though the polls have projected yet another Conservative minority, I will be deviating from such thought in this analysis.

It is my prediction that the next government of Canada will be one of a coalition, between the NDP and the Liberals, with Jack Layton at the head:


This is not directly tied to this site’s own endorsement of the NDP for this election cycle, but rather the attention paid to the rhetoric of the three parties opposed to the Conservative government. If they are willing to hold the government in contempt for a minor budget issue, then no doubt exists that they would also succumb to forming their own coalition and ruling the government with a slim majority. This is, after all, if Harper fails to reach a majority government and if the Bloc Québécois lose their leader and must align themselves to some left-of-center party on Parliament Hill.

Though it is unlikely that all of these predictions will come true, it must be stated that the mere fact that any of this is possible to the Canadian imagination says a lot about the state of democracy and parliamentary process in the year 2011. We are able to fathom a government and a country far different from that which exists, and one perhaps that shall align with our own ambitions or goals.

As the final tallies make their way onto our television screens, laptops, and newspapers, let us admire the process of peaceful political revolution. Let us admire the traditions of the forefathers who bestowed this nation with an unlimited destiny and most-miraculous fate. Let us admire the dreams and ambitions of human beings in this day and age, forever perfecting the experiment of life that has been granted to us.

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3 comments

  1. Pingback: OSAMOBAMA on the Tubes « Liberty In Exile

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